madarauchiha
06-01-2012, 12:31 AM
Foreword:
All my discussions below are mere speculations and logical thinkng on my part. However, i feel that there are certain things below that are worth a read. Read on further and enjoy!
First,just days after the implementation of the premmy scrolls there will be a time where the demand for the premmy scrolls would not be a true reflection of how much the premmy scroll is valued in the long term. Question: Will the supply of premmy scrolls then be a true reflection of the long term supply of premmy scrolls in the future?
Or will there be a over supply/under supply during this period?
"hype period" value: ?
Long term(true value) value:?
Percentage/% decrease?
"hype period" duration?
Estimated duration: 3weeks
Afterwhich, the prices will decrease for a short period of time which i will explain further later.
*
In the long term,(after 3months or so)
The price of the premmy*scroll will most likely stabilise.*
As the sale of premium scrolls is a case of exchanging rl money for in game cash, the price and value of the premium scrolls will increase exponentially over time as the amount of rl life cash is more limited as compared to the ingame cash.
Heres the relationship:*
For example,
1kk ingame cash directly proportionate to 90days of premium scrolls time
When one variable is limited while the other is in excess, in this case it would be obvious that the rl life cash is the limited variable, the rl life cash would transform into the limitig reactant in this equation
So what we have here would be a case of the supply of premmy scrolls being the independent variable and the amount of in game cash(1kk) that can be traded would become the dependent variable whose value would be dependent on the supply of premmy scrolls.
That being said, *we can conclude that the supply of premium scrolls in this case will determine the value of the of the premium scrolls and not the value of the premium scrolls that will determine the supply of premium scrolls.
As such, i would conclude that the price of the premmy scrolls will increase gradually overtime as the price and supply of the premmy scrolls will entirely be in the control of sellers of the premium scroll.
With such control over the price of the premy scrolls and escalated demand for them, one can only expect the price of the premmy scrolls to increase over time.
Notice i mentioned "escalated demand" earlier. Why would i say so?
Well, lets face it, there will be more
People eventually that will prefer to spend ingame cash to get the premmy rather than spend rl life money. Consequently, the number of people buying the premmy scrolls wth ingame cash will be more than those getting it for real life cash.
As a result, there will be an escalated demand for the premmy scrolls in terms of ingame cash.
My conclusion?*
Do not buy premmy scrolls with ingame cash during the "hype period"*
of about 3weeks as the price of them will largely be inflated.
Try to buy them after the hype period is gone, as the prices will largely decrease. How would u know then that the "hype period" is gone?
Here are some symptoms that may show that, they include
1) Less people mentioning about premmy scrolls
2)repeated advertisements selling premmy scrolls for ingame cash with no takers.
Note: you have to be quick in buying the premmy scrolls during this period as the timeframe where their prices are deflated will only last for a perhaps 1week-2weeks?
Afterwhich, the prices will increase again gradually in the way i have explained earlier.
So did u agree with what i said earlier? I hope u did, pls comment on your views about this matter, i would
surely be glad to look at them!
Cheers everyone! :)
Regards,
Madarauchiha
All my discussions below are mere speculations and logical thinkng on my part. However, i feel that there are certain things below that are worth a read. Read on further and enjoy!
First,just days after the implementation of the premmy scrolls there will be a time where the demand for the premmy scrolls would not be a true reflection of how much the premmy scroll is valued in the long term. Question: Will the supply of premmy scrolls then be a true reflection of the long term supply of premmy scrolls in the future?
Or will there be a over supply/under supply during this period?
"hype period" value: ?
Long term(true value) value:?
Percentage/% decrease?
"hype period" duration?
Estimated duration: 3weeks
Afterwhich, the prices will decrease for a short period of time which i will explain further later.
*
In the long term,(after 3months or so)
The price of the premmy*scroll will most likely stabilise.*
As the sale of premium scrolls is a case of exchanging rl money for in game cash, the price and value of the premium scrolls will increase exponentially over time as the amount of rl life cash is more limited as compared to the ingame cash.
Heres the relationship:*
For example,
1kk ingame cash directly proportionate to 90days of premium scrolls time
When one variable is limited while the other is in excess, in this case it would be obvious that the rl life cash is the limited variable, the rl life cash would transform into the limitig reactant in this equation
So what we have here would be a case of the supply of premmy scrolls being the independent variable and the amount of in game cash(1kk) that can be traded would become the dependent variable whose value would be dependent on the supply of premmy scrolls.
That being said, *we can conclude that the supply of premium scrolls in this case will determine the value of the of the premium scrolls and not the value of the premium scrolls that will determine the supply of premium scrolls.
As such, i would conclude that the price of the premmy scrolls will increase gradually overtime as the price and supply of the premmy scrolls will entirely be in the control of sellers of the premium scroll.
With such control over the price of the premy scrolls and escalated demand for them, one can only expect the price of the premmy scrolls to increase over time.
Notice i mentioned "escalated demand" earlier. Why would i say so?
Well, lets face it, there will be more
People eventually that will prefer to spend ingame cash to get the premmy rather than spend rl life money. Consequently, the number of people buying the premmy scrolls wth ingame cash will be more than those getting it for real life cash.
As a result, there will be an escalated demand for the premmy scrolls in terms of ingame cash.
My conclusion?*
Do not buy premmy scrolls with ingame cash during the "hype period"*
of about 3weeks as the price of them will largely be inflated.
Try to buy them after the hype period is gone, as the prices will largely decrease. How would u know then that the "hype period" is gone?
Here are some symptoms that may show that, they include
1) Less people mentioning about premmy scrolls
2)repeated advertisements selling premmy scrolls for ingame cash with no takers.
Note: you have to be quick in buying the premmy scrolls during this period as the timeframe where their prices are deflated will only last for a perhaps 1week-2weeks?
Afterwhich, the prices will increase again gradually in the way i have explained earlier.
So did u agree with what i said earlier? I hope u did, pls comment on your views about this matter, i would
surely be glad to look at them!
Cheers everyone! :)
Regards,
Madarauchiha