How big is the chance to get the undead cavebear?

[Pepsi_901]

I just looted a maxilla maximus, I found this on tibiawiki:

There is also a chance of the item breaking or the creature running away. Each specific mount have a different item and strategy, so do a little research first.

So that's why I'm making this thread...
Does anyone of you have this mount and how many times did you have to try?
Can't deside if I'm gonna sell it or try to get the mount. :p

[Zythox]

Dont know the exact numbers but I think it's like 33% to break, to tame, not to break but not to tame. But all depends on luck I guess, since I had to use 5 bamboo leaves to get panda mount.

[HolmaN]

I ran down there a couple of times per day for about a week, last time, there wasn't any in the spawn, but it spawned on the way out of spawn. When I saw it I almost shit my pant and tamed it on first attempt :)

[jo3bingham]

It's all about luck. I tamed my first mount on the first try.

[HolmaN]

It's all about luck. I tamed my first mount on the first try.
Run-away/break % is not the same on all creatures and taming items. :)

[Pepsi_901]

Ah, okay, I think I'm gonna try to get the it. I don't really need money so :d Can it spawn anytime or does it spawn after ss?

[Mega]

.....

Ah, okay, I think I'm gonna try to get the it. I don't really need money so :d Can it spawn anytime or does it spawn after ss?


I ran down there a couple of times per day for about a week, last time, there wasn't any in the spawn, but it spawned on the way out of spawn. When I saw it I almost shit my pant and tamed it on first attempt :)

[Pepsi_901]

wops, lol

[jo3bingham]

Run-away/break % is not the same on all creatures and taming items. :)
Yeah, but it's still all about luck, no matter what the odds are. It's like rolling a 6-sided die versus a 20-sided die. You have a better chance of getting it right on the 6-sided die, but it's still about probability and luck. Ask Nick about probability, he'll kill you.

[DarkstaR]

Yeah, but it's still all about luck, no matter what the odds are. It's like rolling a 6-sided die versus a 20-sided die. You have a better chance of getting it right on the 6-sided die, but it's still about probability and luck. Ask Nick about probability, he'll kill you.

Didn't me and someone else have this argument about dice back on tug? "Probability is absolutely dependent on previous outcomes" being my stance and the other dude being like "No, no its not?"

I like numbers. Anyways, lets do some math. Assuming the following probability:

33.3% BB Maxilla
33.3% BOOM ??? PROFIT
33.3% FAIL

Lets say you get a FAIL the first time. Now, your second time, here are your chances
44.4% BB Maxilla
44.4% BOOM ?? PROFIT
11.1% FAIL

Wait, the fuck? Well, the chance to hit the same 1/3 chance roll twice in a row is 1/3 * 1/3, or 1/9 (Because you have 3 combinations you can hit after the first one, why would it be the same as before? This applies to any pre-determined combination of 2 rolls, since there's 9 possible combinations). Since our chance of fail again is 1/9, the other 8/9th's is even met between the other possibilities.

What does this tell you? Nothing, really, except that if you fail the first time you have a better chance of losing the maxilla with an even chance of taming and a lesser chance of another fail. This only applies if there is a 33.3% chance on every possibility, though.


EDIT: This also tells you something very important: 1 in every two people loses their maxilla with no mount. There are 3 options but only two of them have a final resolve, the fail option just requires a re-roll.

[Y2Quake]

Math is nothing compared to this.

I TRIED TO TAME WAILING WIDOW 6X TIMES AND NEVER BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT.

fuck maths :/

edit: i mean i lost the item 6 times

[DarkstaR]

Math is nothing compared to this.

I TRIED TO TAME WAILING WIDOW 6X TIMES AND NEVER BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT.

fuck maths :/

edit: i mean i lost the item 6 times

(1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2) == 1/64 chance of that happening. With the thousands of people on Tibia and the hundreds that have tried to tame it, assuming the same probability as before, that's a very likely thing to happen to somebody. In fact, if 1000 people try to tame it, it will happen to roughly 16 people.

[raiQi]

(1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2) == 1/64 chance of that happening. With the thousands of people on Tibia and the hundreds that have tried to tame it, assuming the same probability as before, that's a very likely thing to happen to somebody. In fact, if 1000 people try to tame it, it will happen to roughly 16 people.

If they taming items breaks more than 3 times im pretty sure alot of thoose ppl would rage quit and not attempt it anymore, I knw I would xD

[Hendy]

(1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2) == 1/64 chance of that happening. With the thousands of people on Tibia and the hundreds that have tried to tame it, assuming the same probability as before, that's a very likely thing to happen to somebody. In fact, if 1000 people try to tame it, it will happen to roughly 16 people.

Failed the widow first time and got it the second time ;D

[DarkstaR]

If they taming items breaks more than 3 times im pretty sure alot of thoose ppl would rage quit and not attempt it anymore, I knw I would xD

1/8 chance of it breaking 3 times. Assume a 1/2 chance of persistence.

1/8 * 1/2 * 1/8 == 1/128. This will happen to 1 of every 128 people, assuming 1 in every 2 people quits at their third try. This holds to my previous result that 1 of every 64 people who try it 6 times will get this result.

[Y2Quake]

300 gs to finish the task. if i loot the item this time and i don't tame it i'll go emo and leave tibia for ever.