Secret of Gold Making(?)

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Originally Posted by only4tibia

With a proper system and an un-rigged casino, it is possible to profit off casinos. I used to profit 2kk/3kk a day from dice casinos if I had the time to sit and play. It's simple. Bet minimum on opposite of what is showing. If low is showing, bet High. This will make sure you are already beating the odds. If low was the last roll then rolling low again is already down to a 25% chance (50%h 50%l from last roll. Now 50% of the 50% from previous roll is 25% to roll same thing twice in a row.).

Ok so the dicer did roll the same thing again, 2 lows in a row. NP. Just double your bet and bet the same thing again (H). Odds of rolling same thing 3 times in a row is even lower. If he does, just repeat again, always making sure your current bet will cover all previous bets and that you are always betting on the same until you do win. This will ensure that when you do win you will always be profiting.

Only reason dicers are able to exist is people go in betting without thinking. If you are just randomly choosing h/l, the dicer will have the advantage because he is paying out only 90% in most cases, leaving 10% profit (assuming everything goes 50/50, wins/losses).

I have no problem telling people this now as I will no longer use casinos without the actual dice. Its too easy to make a rigged script when just using a random number generator as your dice. The scripter can put in their code if my losses are any more than 1/2 my wins then if player says high, roll a random 1-3 number.

Regards,
O4T

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You my friend are wrong. (if this wasn't a computer game). Take a statistics class and learn something. This is called the "gambler's fallacy". And I will simplify it.

What are the odds of flipping a coin heads or tails? ----50/50

Now look at the results of 10 flips..
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails

Now comes the 11th flip... what are the odd it hits tails? 50/50 still.. previous flips have absolutely nothing to do with the previous one. The coin will always be flipped and always have a 50/50 outcome... same with an actual dice (in RL)

The odds of a dice are set, same as the odds of a quarter. If someone told you hey, this quarter has been sitting here for two years, but the last time it was flipped it hit heads ten times in a row, would you give two fucks? Or would you just make your 50/50 bet?

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Originally Posted by Brute

You my friend are wrong. (if this wasn't a computer game). Take a statistics class and learn something. This is called the "gambler's fallacy". And I will simplify it.

What are the odds of flipping a coin heads or tails? ----50/50

Now look at the results of 10 flips..
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails
Tails

Now comes the 11th flip... what are the odd it hits tails? 50/50 still.. previous flips have absolutely nothing to do with the previous one. The coin will always be flipped and always have a 50/50 outcome... same with an actual dice (in RL)

The odds of a dice are set, same as the odds of a quarter. If someone told you hey, this quarter has been sitting here for two years, but the last time it was flipped it hit heads ten times in a row, would you give two fucks? Or would you just make your 50/50 bet?

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Like I said earlier, take a dice in tibia and try to roll it high 10 times in a row. Do this 1000 times and let me know how often you succeed. I bet it wont be 50% as you claim it should be. It will be more like 1%. Yes like you said its 50/50 that the dice lands on high or low, but the chances of it doing the same 10 times in a row is unlikely. Do this experiment before you post stupid shit like this. Both you guys come saying I am totally wrong, but I have cleaned dicers many times doing what I have said and I have never once failed to profit at dicers.

I won't answer anymore on this . I told you how to win at dicers. If you don't want to use it then that's fine. I couldn't care less. One quick question though, both of you guys are using a dice script right? XD

Regards,
O4T

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Originally Posted by only4tibia

Like I said earlier, take a dice in tibia and try to roll it high 10 times in a row. Do this 1000 times and let me know how often you succeed. I bet it wont be 50% as you claim it should be. It will be more like 1%. Yes like you said its 50/50 that the dice lands on high or low, but the chances of it doing the same 10 times in a row is unlikely. Do this experiment before you post stupid shit like this. Both you guys come saying I am totally wrong, but I have cleaned dicers many times doing what I have said and I have never once failed to profit at dicers.

I won't answer anymore on this . I told you how to win at dicers. If you don't want to use it then that's fine. I couldn't care less. One quick question though, both of you guys are using a dice script right? XD

Regards,
O4T

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Sorry, just had to give my 2 cents

look up mutually exclusive events, the 10 tails in a row is just as likely to happen as say this combination H,T,T.H,T,H,H,H,T,H

In the same way you could pick the first 7 numbers in the lottery and have the exact same chances of winning as if you picked any other combination or your birthday numbers or what not.

Personally I believe tibia use a random generator for dice as this would be simpler then having a sequential pool of numbers to be drawn on and create a pattern

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Originally Posted by auto

Sorry, just had to give my 2 cents

look up mutually exclusive events, the 10 tails in a row is just as likely to happen as say this combination H,T,T.H,T,H,H,H,T,H

In the same way you could pick the first 7 numbers in the lottery and have the exact same chances of winning as if you picked any other combination or your birthday numbers or what not.

Personally I believe tibia use a random generator for dice as this would be simpler then having a sequential pool of numbers to be drawn on and create a pattern

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I know I said I wouldn't comment anymore on this but I had to for this one.

Lets look at one roll only.

h l - 50% chance betting, ok.

Lets look at 2 rolls.

ll lh hl hh - Still 50% chance of him rolling 2 lows?

You may say the last 2, hl and hh doesn't count as he already rolled l the first time. They wouldn't for an individual roll, but they do count for the total outcome of 10 dice rolls in a row.

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Originally Posted by only4tibia

I know I said I wouldn't comment anymore on this but I had to for this one.

Lets look at one roll only.

h l - 50% chance betting, ok.

Lets look at 2 rolls.

ll lh hl hh - Still 50% chance of him rolling 2 lows?

You may say the last 2, hl and hh doesn't count as he already rolled l the first time. They wouldn't for an individual roll, but they do count for the total outcome of 10 dice rolls in a row.

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Chance of rolling 2 lows at row is 25% same as rolling lh, hl or hh

As has already been pointed out, each pair of rolls is equally likely. the same would be if you rolled 3 times the possible outcomes are
LLL HHH
LHL HLH
LHH HLL

each are equally likely to occur, there is the SAME chance to sequence HLL as there is to go LHH.

"Successive rolls are independent;
knowing we got H on the first roll does not help us predict
the outcome of the second roll."

Until you have this down, I'd steer clear of slot machines.

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Originally Posted by only4tibia

I know I said I wouldn't comment anymore on this but I had to for this one.

Lets look at one roll only.

h l - 50% chance betting, ok.

Lets look at 2 rolls.

ll lh hl hh - Still 50% chance of him rolling 2 lows?

You may say the last 2, hl and hh doesn't count as he already rolled l the first time. They wouldn't for an individual roll, but they do count for the total outcome of 10 dice rolls in a row.

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You are wrong, he is right - sorry about that :( Chances of rolling HIGH or LOW is always 1/2. Rolling something ie. 10 times in a row is smaller - (1/2)^10 as long as all rolls are unknown, if you already know what you rolled, (let's say you rolled 'high' 9 times in a row) then rolling 'high' 10th time will still be 1/2.

Just to shed some light on exactly how great your chances are of winning anything, the lottery results are just as likely to be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 as they are to be any other sequence of numbers (UK lottery is 6 numbers chosen by RNG).

The real issue here is that in doubling your bet each time your chances of winning are, although still 50/50 *for each roll*, at much higher risk.

Sample casino: Minimum bet: 2k, maximum bet: 200k.

2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, oh shit we've run out of bets to place.

That means you get 6 chances to win at 50/50, before your bet caps out. What this means in reality is that you have a 50/50 chance of winning 2k, but also a 50/50 chance of losing 254k.

On the whole, however, your chances of winning do not remain at 50/50. For each consecutive roll the overall probability of winning increments gradually like so:

First roll: 50/50
Second roll: 66/33
Third roll: 75/25
Fourth roll: 80/20
Tenth roll: 90/10
Twentieth roll: 95/5
Fiftieth roll: 98/2
Hundredth roll: 99/1

That is not to say that the odds on each roll change. That is to say that the chance of a 100% balanced H/L 50/50 RNG picking the same result X times in a row reduce when X increases.

I used to run a similar tactic on roulette, and I've won probably £600 in total (after deducting losses and deposits, naturally). It's not impossible to beat the house, just it takes some time, patience, and understanding of how systems work. The fact is, RNGs can be predicted to some extent provided they are mildly predictable. Provided you know your limits, and are willing to accept when you have lost some and call it a day, you can profit from it.

What's your story?
-How rich are you?
To much.
-How big is your gold income?
Around 400kks.
-Do you waste a lot of gold?
A lot.
-What's the secret behind your success?
Secret.

What's your story?
-How rich are you?
I've got about 80~100kk of gold/items
-How big is your gold income?
I bring in probably 3~4kk/month
-Do you waste a lot of gold?
I hunt for profit, so I don't waste.
-What's the secret behind your success?
I stay in spawns that are well below the level requirement to hunt them, so I never waste, ever.