Who bets more

[Bubba]

You can't do anything under 1 roll, but you can do more than one.

It's called probability. Next time you're online, go take some money to a dicebot and guess low 100 times in a row. 50/50 shot, right?

I'm a work on my iphone right now, so I can't really explain what I'm trying to say that we'll, but when I get home I will.

Obviously it's a 50% chance for every roll. So if you want to guess low 8 times in a row the probability would be;
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0,00390625 = 0,4% chance more or less.
It doesn't matter what you guess, it will never he more or less unlikely for your guess to happen than any other specific guess.
H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H
Is as likely as;
H/L/L/H/L/H/H/L/L/H/L/H/H/H/L/H/L/L/H/L/L/L/H/L/L/H/H/L/H/H/L/H

[reecey]

You can't do anything under 1 roll, but you can do more than one.

It's called probability. Next time you're online, go take some money to a dicebot and guess low 100 times in a row. 50/50 shot, right?

I'm a work on my iphone right now, so I can't really explain what I'm trying to say that we'll, but when I get home I will.

Okay, i think i understand what you mean... If i bet low 100 times, you are trying to say i wont get low 50% of the time..? You are correct but my point is not that half will be low and half will be high. My point is that there is EQUAL chance to be high or low which makes ANY and ALL 'tactics' worthless since you cant predict or sense a pattern. That would be an honest misunderstanding on your part and sorry if i came across as a bit of a knob.

[Luls]

My point is that there is EQUAL chance to be high or low which makes ANY and ALL 'tactics' worthless since you cant predict or sense a pattern.

Not at all. Let me try to explain this a bit better for you.

You walk up to a bot. For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now. You bet 5k on low. At this point, you have a 50/50 chance of winning. The dice rolls 2. You win. You get your money back, and whatever extra you get for winning.

Now, here's where the probability comes in. To start, we say that you have a 50% chance of the dice rolling high, 50% low. That being said, that means that the chance of the dice rolling low for the second bet you're about to make is 50% of 50% (50% chance of the dice being low the first time, and now 50% chance of the dice being low this time). That means you have a 25% chance of the dice being low twice in a row.

You bet 5k on low, and luckily for you, the dice rolls a 3. You collect your winnings.

Now, the dice has been low twice in a row. What are the chances of it being low 3x in a row? 50% of the odds you had from your last roll (50% of 25, or 12.5%). With that taken into mind, you bet 300k on high. The dice rolls, and with the 87.5% chance of the dice coming back high that you have right now, it comes back high.

Congrats, you just won 540k.


With all this being said, this method is no way near fool proof, but as long as you keep track of what has been rolled over the past few rolls, you have a much better chance of winning. Now, please tell me again about the math you learned when you were 4 years old.

[reecey]

Not at all. Let me try to explain this a bit better for you.

You walk up to a bot. For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now. You bet 5k on low. At this point, you have a 50/50 chance of winning. The dice rolls 2. You win. You get your money back, and whatever extra you get for winning.

Now, here's where the probability comes in. To start, we say that you have a 50% chance of the dice rolling high, 50% low. That being said, that means that the chance of the dice rolling low for the second bet you're about to make is 50% of 50% (50% chance of the dice being low the first time, and now 50% chance of the dice being low this time). That means you have a 25% chance of the dice being low twice in a row.

You bet 5k on low, and luckily for you, the dice rolls a 3. You collect your winnings.

Now, the dice has been low twice in a row. What are the chances of it being low 3x in a row? 50% of the odds you had from your last roll (50% of 25, or 12.5%). With that taken into mind, you bet 300k on high. The dice rolls, and with the 87.5% chance of the dice coming back high that you have right now, it comes back high.

Congrats, you just won 540k.


With all this being said, this method is no way near fool proof, but as long as you keep track of what has been rolled over the past few rolls, you have a much better chance of winning. Now, please tell me again about the math you learned when you were 4 years old.

I have to strongly disagree here, when you roll a dice its 50% change for H or L regardless of previous rolls. Unless tibia stores it like that (which it doesn't or anyone could fool a dice bot and dice bots wouldnt exist because they would lose all their money)

[Flappy Joe]

I have to strongly disagree here, when you roll a dice its 50% change for H or L regardless of previous rolls. Unless tibia stores it like that (which it doesn't or anyone could fool a dice bot and dice bots wouldnt exist because they would lose all their money)

You are right and I am done here wow

[Bubba]

Not at all. Let me try to explain this a bit better for you.

You walk up to a bot. For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now. You bet 5k on low. At this point, you have a 50/50 chance of winning. The dice rolls 2. You win. You get your money back, and whatever extra you get for winning.

Now, here's where the probability comes in. To start, we say that you have a 50% chance of the dice rolling high, 50% low. That being said, that means that the chance of the dice rolling low for the second bet you're about to make is 50% of 50% (50% chance of the dice being low the first time, and now 50% chance of the dice being low this time). That means you have a 25% chance of the dice being low twice in a row.

You bet 5k on low, and luckily for you, the dice rolls a 3. You collect your winnings.

Now, the dice has been low twice in a row. What are the chances of it being low 3x in a row? 50% of the odds you had from your last roll (50% of 25, or 12.5%). With that taken into mind, you bet 300k on high. The dice rolls, and with the 87.5% chance of the dice coming back high that you have right now, it comes back high.

Congrats, you just won 540k.


With all this being said, this method is no way near fool proof, but as long as you keep track of what has been rolled over the past few rolls, you have a much better chance of winning. Now, please tell me again about the math you learned when you were 4 years old.

This is where you are mistaken.
Let me just copy/paste this wikipedia thing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness

"Main article: Gambler's fallacy
Popular perceptions of randomness are frequently mistaken, based on fallacious reasoning or intuitions.
A number is "due"
see also Coupon collector's problem
This argument is, "In a random selection of numbers, since all numbers eventually appear, those that have not come up yet are 'due', and thus more likely to come up soon." This logic is only correct if applied to a system where numbers that come up are removed from the system, such as when playing cards are drawn and not returned to the deck. In this case, once a jack is removed from the deck, the next draw is less likely to be a jack and more likely to be some other card. However, if the jack is returned to the deck, and the deck is thoroughly reshuffled, a jack is as likely to be drawn as any other card. The same applies in any other process where objects are selected independently, and none are removed after each event, such as the roll of a die, a coin toss, or most lottery number selection schemes. Truly random processes such as these do not have memory, making it impossible for past outcomes to affect future outcomes."

[sausting]

Everyone agrees pseudorandom number created by a RNG is not actually random in the truest sense of the word. However in a game like tibia where a random event occurs every time a player hits, gets hit, casts spells, uses potions, heals times hundreds of players online there is no real conceivable way find out how many times it will generate any given result.
To all the method preachers, do share how you always hit your max dmg, heal your top, and shield hit always. The ways of defying probability are intriguing me.

You are right and I am done here wow

" For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now."
what? i don't even..

[sausting]

double

[Luls]

" For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now."
what? i don't even..

All I meant was it's the first time you've seen the dice. You haven't see what was rolled on it previously. You have no information about this dice apart from what number it's on now.

[Mish]

Not at all. Let me try to explain this a bit better for you.

You walk up to a bot. For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now. You bet 5k on low. At this point, you have a 50/50 chance of winning. The dice rolls 2. You win. You get your money back, and whatever extra you get for winning.

Now, here's where the probability comes in. To start, we say that you have a 50% chance of the dice rolling high, 50% low. That being said, that means that the chance of the dice rolling low for the second bet you're about to make is 50% of 50% (50% chance of the dice being low the first time, and now 50% chance of the dice being low this time). That means you have a 25% chance of the dice being low twice in a row.

You bet 5k on low, and luckily for you, the dice rolls a 3. You collect your winnings.

Now, the dice has been low twice in a row. What are the chances of it being low 3x in a row? 50% of the odds you had from your last roll (50% of 25, or 12.5%). With that taken into mind, you bet 300k on high. The dice rolls, and with the 87.5% chance of the dice coming back high that you have right now, it comes back high.

Congrats, you just won 540k.


With all this being said, this method is no way near fool proof, but as long as you keep track of what has been rolled over the past few rolls, you have a much better chance of winning. Now, please tell me again about the math you learned when you were 4 years old.

This is just so completly wrong.

All I meant was it's the first time you've seen the dice. You haven't see what was rolled on it previously. You have no information about this dice apart from what number it's on now.

Does not matter the slightest.