Who bets more

[emilio94]

You dont have to study probability and statistics to know that whatever the next roll is, it does not deppend on the previous roll.. Its called independence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indepen...bility_theory)

[Xeromex]

This shit ended in some heavy physics discussion xD

[Stusse]

Not at all. Let me try to explain this a bit better for you.

You walk up to a bot. For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now. You bet 5k on low. At this point, you have a 50/50 chance of winning. The dice rolls 2. You win. You get your money back, and whatever extra you get for winning.

Now, here's where the probability comes in. To start, we say that you have a 50% chance of the dice rolling high, 50% low. That being said, that means that the chance of the dice rolling low for the second bet you're about to make is 50% of 50% (50% chance of the dice being low the first time, and now 50% chance of the dice being low this time). That means you have a 25% chance of the dice being low twice in a row.

You bet 5k on low, and luckily for you, the dice rolls a 3. You collect your winnings.

Now, the dice has been low twice in a row. What are the chances of it being low 3x in a row? 50% of the odds you had from your last roll (50% of 25, or 12.5%). With that taken into mind, you bet 300k on high. The dice rolls, and with the 87.5% chance of the dice coming back high that you have right now, it comes back high.

Congrats, you just won 540k.


With all this being said, this method is no way near fool proof, but as long as you keep track of what has been rolled over the past few rolls, you have a much better chance of winning. Now, please tell me again about the math you learned when you were 4 years old.

This is however not valid on long term run.

You know the possibility of it getting H X amount of time is 50% of each turn. In the long run, the possibility for it to be High for 100 times is quite low. However, if you're on that last 100 roll, you still stand the same chance for the next roll to be High as Low. Each roll is individually 50%, it's just the long term pattern from the beginning that it's that low % to be high for 100 rolls. However the chance for 99 same rolls in the same row is almost as unlikely, therefor the individually 100th roll is 50% to be what ever.

/Stusse

(with the reservation of this already been answered in the thread, didnt read through)

[jmagz]

It'd be great if those with dicer bots post their roll counts f if possible as I notice myself that after a few hours and a few hundred rolls it's usually 50/50 h/l or 60/40 in the long run, you know as it statistically should be.

It's only in the short term where we perceive a streak happening that a confirmation bias of sorts takes over and we believe there are patterns.
A dice is not affected by it's previous roll as stated but an overall statistical chance allows it to even out because their are two outcomes both as likely.

[whothefuckisbubble]

Lol, I can't believe you guys really believe thats not 50/50

[Chuitox]

It'd be great if those with dicer bots post their roll counts f if possible as I notice myself that after a few hours and a few hundred rolls it's usually 50/50 h/l or 60/40 in the long run, you know as it statistically should be.

It's only in the short term where we perceive a streak happening that a confirmation bias of sorts takes over and we believe there are patterns.
A dice is not affected by it's previous roll as stated but an overall statistical chance allows it to even out because their are two outcomes both as likely.

A 5 hours session with my script:
Total Rolls: 255
Numbers = 4, 1, 3, 3, 3, 2, 6, 2, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 6, 5, 5, 3, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 1, 5, 4, 1, 4, 6, 6, 4, 5, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1, 2, 5, 3, 3, 1, 5, 1, 4, 3, 3, 5, 1, 1, 1, 3, 2, 4, 5, 5, 1, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2, 5, 4, 6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, 1, 4, 6, 5, 4, 2, 4, 6, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3, 3, 5, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 1, 5, 1, 6, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 1, 1, 6, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 3, 2, 6, 1, 2, 1, 6, 6, 2, 5, 2, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 1, 4, 2, 2, 3, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 2, 5, 5, 1, 3, 1, 4, 3, 2, 5, 5, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 1, 6, 6, 5, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 6, 5, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 1, 6, 2, 3, 5, 2, 2, 2, 4, 4, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 3, 1, 3, 1, 1, 5, 6, 6, 3, 5, 1, 3, 4, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 4, 6, 4, 1, 1, 4, 3, 5, 1, 1, 6, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3

lua code:

{

	["number"] = 1,

	["count"] = 48

},

{

	["number"] = 2,

	["count"] = 29

},

{

	["number"] = 3,

	["count"] = 45

},

{

	["number"] = 4,

	["count"] = 50

},

{

	["number"] = 5,

	["count"] = 48

},

{

	["number"] = 6,

	["count"] = 34

}

@Daniel-Sp

[Stronghamer]

This is very entertaining

[sausting]

A 5 hours session with my script:
Total Rolls: 255
Numbers = 4, 1, 3, 3, 3, 2, 6, 2, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, 1, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 6, 5, 5, 3, 1, 4, 6, 4, 4, 1, 5, 4, 1, 4, 6, 6, 4, 5, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 2, 1, 4, 1, 2, 5, 3, 3, 1, 5, 1, 4, 3, 3, 5, 1, 1, 1, 3, 2, 4, 5, 5, 1, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2, 5, 4, 6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, 1, 4, 6, 5, 4, 2, 4, 6, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3, 3, 5, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 1, 5, 1, 6, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 1, 1, 6, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 3, 2, 6, 1, 2, 1, 6, 6, 2, 5, 2, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 1, 4, 2, 2, 3, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 2, 5, 5, 1, 3, 1, 4, 3, 2, 5, 5, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 1, 6, 6, 5, 1, 1, 1, 4, 6, 6, 5, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 1, 6, 2, 3, 5, 2, 2, 2, 4, 4, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 3, 1, 3, 1, 1, 5, 6, 6, 3, 5, 1, 3, 4, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 4, 6, 4, 1, 1, 4, 3, 5, 1, 1, 6, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3

lua code:

{

	["number"] = 1,

	["count"] = 48

},

{

	["number"] = 2,

	["count"] = 29

},

{

	["number"] = 3,

	["count"] = 45

},

{

	["number"] = 4,

	["count"] = 50

},

{

	["number"] = 5,

	["count"] = 48

},

{

	["number"] = 6,

	["count"] = 34

}

@Daniel-Sp

122 vs 132 i knew pattern...

[Bubba]

That is pretty much the only true thing said in here... talking about the randomness of a dice roll in Tibia :P

But it's very easy to make a random number generation and it wouldn't make sense for tibia to rig the dice in any way. Even if it was true you would need a sample size of millions of throws at least to find a pattern with any meaning.