Who bets more

I just saw this on Luminera, two dicers on the same depot spot, lol too many dicers nowdays, it's a funny picture

http://i.imgur.com/EvOApIi.jpg

oh, you haven't seen Aurora yet?
you're lucky if you get a depo spot in Yalahar because of dicers, and dicers using alts to block other dicers.
yes, true story.

Hahaha, hilarious.

Gotta love gambling though. 14kk profit yesterday by gambling at other people's casinos.
Skynet <3

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Originally Posted by Colte

Gotta love gambling though. 14kk profit yesterday by gambling at other people's casinos.
Skynet <3

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Now that's some realshitmotherfuckingassholepussy-profit! :O

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Originally Posted by Colte

Gotta love gambling though. 14kk profit yesterday by gambling at other people's casinos.
Skynet <3

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Tactic, plx?
I usually profit 1.5kk then loose it all!

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Originally Posted by Jah

Tactic, plx?
I usually profit 1.5kk then loose it all!

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There is no tactic to increase your profit :P it's just stupid luck.

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Originally Posted by smeg

There is no tactic to increase your profit :P it's just stupid luck.

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Actually there's ! From the day that I'm running my dicers, I've been realizing that people found some patterns on dicieng..

Lol unless they 'cracked' the algorithm cip uses to get a 'random' dice roll then there cant be a working tactic, its 50/50 pure luck and since its 80% payout you need to win more than once for ever loss so the dicer at the end of the day has more chance of profiting

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Originally Posted by reecey

Lol unless they 'cracked' the algorithm cip uses to get a 'random' dice roll then there cant be a working tactic, its 50/50 pure luck and since its 80% payout you need to win more than once for ever loss so the dicer at the end of the day has more chance of profiting

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No cracking needed to understand patterns.. if you have a good strategy and don't run away from it, its not hard to proffit.

Get a dice, roll it 100 times.. you will see that its MUCH easier to get 5-10 rolls with the same pattern ( only high or only low) than h/l/h/l/h/l/h/l/h/l

Not impossible, but really hard.

Note: don't have any fixed pattern and didn't ever try to make one.. I'm saying based on players that win/lose money on my dices.

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Originally Posted by Daniel-Sp

No cracking needed to understand patterns.. if you have a good strategy and don't run away from it, its not hard to proffit.

Get a dice, roll it 100 times.. you will see that its MUCH easier to get 5-10 rolls with the same pattern ( high or low) than h/l/h/l/h/l/h/l/h/l

Not impossible, but really hard.

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And this is how dicers profit... You think there's a pattern... There just simply isn't a pattern here, its 50/50, thats all it is, 50/50 no ifs,buts,whys or hows (unless you crack the algorithm) and since its 80% payout you need to win more than you lose to make profit which puts the odds into the dicers favour... People can't seem to grasp these words and continue thinking "there's a pattern, i can win" bla bla bla...

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Originally Posted by reecey

, its 50/50 pure luck

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It definitely is not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Though you can try the old 2x method.
When you lose you simply bet double what you lost until you win, once you win then you start again from a low value.
You may have to modify the 2x to a higher multiplier if it's a 80% payout though, I made a spreadsheet to do this and made about 400k in 20minutes off one bot
I'd spend more time doing it but I can't be arsed.

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Originally Posted by Luls

It definitely is not.

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So there's not a 50/50 chance to get 123/456 ? I thought since it's random and there an even amount of numbers that it has to be 50/50...? Thats like basic math taught to me when i was 4 years old...

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Originally Posted by reecey

So there's not a 50/50 chance to get 123/456 ? I thought since it's random and there an even amount of numbers that it has to be 50/50...?

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On one roll, yes. But that's not how casinos work. Do you think there's a 50/50 chance to roll "123" 50 times in a row? No.

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Originally Posted by Luls

On one roll, yes. But that's not how casinos work. Do you think there's a 50/50 chance to roll "123" 50 times in a row? No.

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It's 50/50 for a single roll, you can't do anything other than a single roll.. Each roll is eperate and each roll is 50/50 since theres an even amount of numbers on each side and it chooses one at random... I can't understand why anyone would dispute such basic math?

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Originally Posted by Luls

On one roll, yes. But that's not how casinos work. Do you think there's a 50/50 chance to roll "123" 50 times in a row? No.

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The chance to roll low or high is always 50%. It doesn't matter whether you rolled low 50 times in a row. This is basic maths.

Had some laughs scrolling through this thread.
That people seriously believe that it's not 50/50, or that there are patterns.
The only way to win or loose is by luck, it's totally random wheter it lands on one, two, three, four, five or six, unless there's a way to maniuplate the dice, which there isn't at the moment.

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Originally Posted by jmagz

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Though you can try the old 2x method.
When you lose you simply bet double what you lost until you win, once you win then you start again from a low value.
You may have to modify the 2x to a higher multiplier if it's a 80% payout though, I made a spreadsheet to do this and made about 400k in 20minutes off one bot
I'd spend more time doing it but I can't be arsed.

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This is the smartest way to "manipulate" the SYSTEM, not the dice, it does make it a bit harder as the maximum amount of coins that you can put in one stack is 100, aswell as the payment is 80%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marting...ting_system%29

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Originally Posted by Mish

The chance to roll low or high is always 50%. It doesn't matter whether you rolled low 50 times in a row. This is basic maths.

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Been diceing for 2 months on somechars and didn't find any sequence of more than 10-13 times of the same side.

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Originally Posted by Daniel-Sp

Been diceing for 2 months on somechars and didn't find any sequence of more than 10-13 times of the same side.

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Probability. This is fucking high school mathematics..It's always 50/50, no matter what happens.

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Originally Posted by Daniel-Sp

Been diceing for 2 months on somechars and didn't find any sequence of more than 10-13 times of the same side.

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I've been dicing for over a year and I have seen times when it was high etc. 20 times in a row.

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Originally Posted by Mish

Probability. This is fucking high school mathematics..It's always 50/50, no matter what happens.

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Thanks mish.

@everyone a 50/50 probability doesnt mean it will get 123 equal amount of times as 456... there will be streaks where 123 comes up 60000000000000 times in a row if its given enough time, this does NOT mean 123 has more chance

the probability to roll either H or L is the same since there are 6 possible rolls, 3 are high and 3 are low. you dont have a higher chance of rolling a 4 anymore than you would roll a 2. whatever determines the roll of the dice on the server side; it would be near impossible to decipher, and if it were some sort of RNG...it would certainly be triggered by more than any one set of dice (making it impossible to construct a pattern).

//IMO

If you don't believe it's 50/50 then I don't really know what to say to you.

It's just 50/50 noobs, simple math!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just adding some background information.

In real life you can call it 50/50 but due to physics (the way you throw the dice, gravity and dice weight for example) it is not 50/50 IRL

Now, when you talk about the game, you can apply the same idea. Even at low level programming there is no 100% random number. Instead, it's called pseudorandom (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandomness) because no matter how much you try to make it random, it always follows a pattern, the problem is that not everyone knows what that pattern is. There is a possibility that Cipsoft could have their own pattern to generate this "random" number.

Or...

Maybe I'm just wrong but only people like @DarkstaR may know it :p

About the post on other thread:

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Originally Posted by Xparn

I strongly suggest people not to activate the number game, i went -2kk on one day with it, i disabled 12/34/56 and single number game. Hopefully it goes better now.

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I said:

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Originally Posted by Daniel-Sp

That's what im trying to explain to @Mish and @reecey

Here, we have a First/Second/Last game giving a 200% payout. Since its a game with 3 options, the chances on winning are even lower BUT, it's not ( at tibia).

The chances to get a First / Last is MUCH higher than getting "SEC".. I lost a nice ammount of money yesterday like @Xparn testing it. You guys can say anyting about probability that I will blindly trust.. anyway, we can't say that the dices from our game are fair like only matematics.

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Originally Posted by Chuitox

Just adding some background information.

In real life you can call it 50/50 but due to physics (the way you throw the dice, gravity and dice weight for example) it is not 50/50 IRL

Now, when you talk about the game, you can apply the same idea. Even at low level programming there is no 100% random number. Instead, it's called pseudorandom (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandomness) because no matter how much you try to make it random, it always follows a pattern, the problem is that not everyone knows what that pattern is. There is a possibility that Cipsoft could have their own pattern to generate this "random" number.

Or...

Maybe I'm just wrong but only people like @DarkstaR may know it :p

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You are correct, a game can only use an algorithm to make it appear random, if you crack this algorithm you can work out which number will be rolled but i dont think enough computing power exists on earth to do this :P The same applies to real life.. the 50/50 odds are an illusion and not an illusion at the same time.. if you add up the rolls you will calculate a 50/50 chance which implies it is random but you and me both know there ARE deciding factors :P We live in a fucked up world but yeah H/L is 50/50 on a 6 sided dice, simple math :P

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Originally Posted by reecey

It's 50/50 for a single roll, you can't do anything other than a single roll..

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You can't do anything under 1 roll, but you can do more than one.

It's called probability. Next time you're online, go take some money to a dicebot and guess low 100 times in a row. 50/50 shot, right?

I'm a work on my iphone right now, so I can't really explain what I'm trying to say that we'll, but when I get home I will.

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Originally Posted by Luls

You can't do anything under 1 roll, but you can do more than one.

It's called probability. Next time you're online, go take some money to a dicebot and guess low 100 times in a row. 50/50 shot, right?

I'm a work on my iphone right now, so I can't really explain what I'm trying to say that we'll, but when I get home I will.

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Obviously it's a 50% chance for every roll. So if you want to guess low 8 times in a row the probability would be;
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0,00390625 = 0,4% chance more or less.
It doesn't matter what you guess, it will never he more or less unlikely for your guess to happen than any other specific guess.
H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H/H
Is as likely as;
H/L/L/H/L/H/H/L/L/H/L/H/H/H/L/H/L/L/H/L/L/L/H/L/L/H/H/L/H/H/L/H

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Originally Posted by Luls

You can't do anything under 1 roll, but you can do more than one.

It's called probability. Next time you're online, go take some money to a dicebot and guess low 100 times in a row. 50/50 shot, right?

I'm a work on my iphone right now, so I can't really explain what I'm trying to say that we'll, but when I get home I will.

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Okay, i think i understand what you mean... If i bet low 100 times, you are trying to say i wont get low 50% of the time..? You are correct but my point is not that half will be low and half will be high. My point is that there is EQUAL chance to be high or low which makes ANY and ALL 'tactics' worthless since you cant predict or sense a pattern. That would be an honest misunderstanding on your part and sorry if i came across as a bit of a knob.

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Originally Posted by reecey

My point is that there is EQUAL chance to be high or low which makes ANY and ALL 'tactics' worthless since you cant predict or sense a pattern.

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Not at all. Let me try to explain this a bit better for you.

You walk up to a bot. For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now. You bet 5k on low. At this point, you have a 50/50 chance of winning. The dice rolls 2. You win. You get your money back, and whatever extra you get for winning.

Now, here's where the probability comes in. To start, we say that you have a 50% chance of the dice rolling high, 50% low. That being said, that means that the chance of the dice rolling low for the second bet you're about to make is 50% of 50% (50% chance of the dice being low the first time, and now 50% chance of the dice being low this time). That means you have a 25% chance of the dice being low twice in a row.

You bet 5k on low, and luckily for you, the dice rolls a 3. You collect your winnings.

Now, the dice has been low twice in a row. What are the chances of it being low 3x in a row? 50% of the odds you had from your last roll (50% of 25, or 12.5%). With that taken into mind, you bet 300k on high. The dice rolls, and with the 87.5% chance of the dice coming back high that you have right now, it comes back high.

Congrats, you just won 540k.


With all this being said, this method is no way near fool proof, but as long as you keep track of what has been rolled over the past few rolls, you have a much better chance of winning. Now, please tell me again about the math you learned when you were 4 years old.

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Originally Posted by Luls

Not at all. Let me try to explain this a bit better for you.

You walk up to a bot. For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now. You bet 5k on low. At this point, you have a 50/50 chance of winning. The dice rolls 2. You win. You get your money back, and whatever extra you get for winning.

Now, here's where the probability comes in. To start, we say that you have a 50% chance of the dice rolling high, 50% low. That being said, that means that the chance of the dice rolling low for the second bet you're about to make is 50% of 50% (50% chance of the dice being low the first time, and now 50% chance of the dice being low this time). That means you have a 25% chance of the dice being low twice in a row.

You bet 5k on low, and luckily for you, the dice rolls a 3. You collect your winnings.

Now, the dice has been low twice in a row. What are the chances of it being low 3x in a row? 50% of the odds you had from your last roll (50% of 25, or 12.5%). With that taken into mind, you bet 300k on high. The dice rolls, and with the 87.5% chance of the dice coming back high that you have right now, it comes back high.

Congrats, you just won 540k.


With all this being said, this method is no way near fool proof, but as long as you keep track of what has been rolled over the past few rolls, you have a much better chance of winning. Now, please tell me again about the math you learned when you were 4 years old.

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I have to strongly disagree here, when you roll a dice its 50% change for H or L regardless of previous rolls. Unless tibia stores it like that (which it doesn't or anyone could fool a dice bot and dice bots wouldnt exist because they would lose all their money)

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Originally Posted by reecey

I have to strongly disagree here, when you roll a dice its 50% change for H or L regardless of previous rolls. Unless tibia stores it like that (which it doesn't or anyone could fool a dice bot and dice bots wouldnt exist because they would lose all their money)

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You are right and I am done here wow

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Originally Posted by Luls

Not at all. Let me try to explain this a bit better for you.

You walk up to a bot. For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now. You bet 5k on low. At this point, you have a 50/50 chance of winning. The dice rolls 2. You win. You get your money back, and whatever extra you get for winning.

Now, here's where the probability comes in. To start, we say that you have a 50% chance of the dice rolling high, 50% low. That being said, that means that the chance of the dice rolling low for the second bet you're about to make is 50% of 50% (50% chance of the dice being low the first time, and now 50% chance of the dice being low this time). That means you have a 25% chance of the dice being low twice in a row.

You bet 5k on low, and luckily for you, the dice rolls a 3. You collect your winnings.

Now, the dice has been low twice in a row. What are the chances of it being low 3x in a row? 50% of the odds you had from your last roll (50% of 25, or 12.5%). With that taken into mind, you bet 300k on high. The dice rolls, and with the 87.5% chance of the dice coming back high that you have right now, it comes back high.

Congrats, you just won 540k.


With all this being said, this method is no way near fool proof, but as long as you keep track of what has been rolled over the past few rolls, you have a much better chance of winning. Now, please tell me again about the math you learned when you were 4 years old.

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This is where you are mistaken.
Let me just copy/paste this wikipedia thing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness

"Main article: Gambler's fallacy
Popular perceptions of randomness are frequently mistaken, based on fallacious reasoning or intuitions.
A number is "due"
see also Coupon collector's problem
This argument is, "In a random selection of numbers, since all numbers eventually appear, those that have not come up yet are 'due', and thus more likely to come up soon." This logic is only correct if applied to a system where numbers that come up are removed from the system, such as when playing cards are drawn and not returned to the deck. In this case, once a jack is removed from the deck, the next draw is less likely to be a jack and more likely to be some other card. However, if the jack is returned to the deck, and the deck is thoroughly reshuffled, a jack is as likely to be drawn as any other card. The same applies in any other process where objects are selected independently, and none are removed after each event, such as the roll of a die, a coin toss, or most lottery number selection schemes. Truly random processes such as these do not have memory, making it impossible for past outcomes to affect future outcomes."

Everyone agrees pseudorandom number created by a RNG is not actually random in the truest sense of the word. However in a game like tibia where a random event occurs every time a player hits, gets hit, casts spells, uses potions, heals times hundreds of players online there is no real conceivable way find out how many times it will generate any given result.
To all the method preachers, do share how you always hit your max dmg, heal your top, and shield hit always. The ways of defying probability are intriguing me.

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Originally Posted by Floppy Jimmy

You are right and I am done here wow

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" For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now."
what? i don't even..

double

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Originally Posted by sausting

" For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now."
what? i don't even..

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All I meant was it's the first time you've seen the dice. You haven't see what was rolled on it previously. You have no information about this dice apart from what number it's on now.

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Originally Posted by Luls

Not at all. Let me try to explain this a bit better for you.

You walk up to a bot. For my example, this dice has never been used before, so to start, it doesn't matter what number is on the dice right now. You bet 5k on low. At this point, you have a 50/50 chance of winning. The dice rolls 2. You win. You get your money back, and whatever extra you get for winning.

Now, here's where the probability comes in. To start, we say that you have a 50% chance of the dice rolling high, 50% low. That being said, that means that the chance of the dice rolling low for the second bet you're about to make is 50% of 50% (50% chance of the dice being low the first time, and now 50% chance of the dice being low this time). That means you have a 25% chance of the dice being low twice in a row.

You bet 5k on low, and luckily for you, the dice rolls a 3. You collect your winnings.

Now, the dice has been low twice in a row. What are the chances of it being low 3x in a row? 50% of the odds you had from your last roll (50% of 25, or 12.5%). With that taken into mind, you bet 300k on high. The dice rolls, and with the 87.5% chance of the dice coming back high that you have right now, it comes back high.

Congrats, you just won 540k.


With all this being said, this method is no way near fool proof, but as long as you keep track of what has been rolled over the past few rolls, you have a much better chance of winning. Now, please tell me again about the math you learned when you were 4 years old.

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This is just so completly wrong.

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Originally Posted by Luls

All I meant was it's the first time you've seen the dice. You haven't see what was rolled on it previously. You have no information about this dice apart from what number it's on now.

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Does not matter the slightest.